论文

A worldwide leading company in the cosmetic industry was dealing with great challenges regarding adapting its positioning strategy to the dynamically changing behaviors of the market. The company needed to decide where to invest its marketing budget to optimize its revenue and was using different traditional marketing mix models without any success. A marketing mix model was developed using agent-based modeling to predict the market’s reaction to a given distribution of a certain budget among the different touchpoints available. This innovative model uses market information and consumer information collected from surveys to estimate the company’s sales, level of awareness and level of consideration given its distributed investment. The tool was implemented as part of the marketing plan decision making process, providing the ability to test different scenarios and generate quantitative analysis of its results.

A hierarchical production planning structure enables manufacturing systems to handle customer disturbances with different measures on different planning levels. Two different kinds of customer order behavior can be observed and are as well discussed in literature.

Agent-based modeling (ABM) has gained great popularity in recent years, especially in application areas where human behavior is important, because it opens up the possibility of capturing such behavior in great detail. Hybrid models which combine ABM with discrete-event simulation (DES) are particularly appealing in service industry applications.

Suppliers and retailers in the newsvendor setting need to submit their pricing and inventory decisions respectively, well before actual customer demand is realized. In the literature they have both been typically considered as perfectly rational optimizers, exclusively interested in their own respective benefits. Under the above set of conditions the wholesale price-only contract has long been analytically proven as inefficient.

By creating an integrated simulation environment that models the underlying structure of a pharmaceutical enterprise portfolio it becomes possible to identify the optimal longitudinal allocation of finite resources across the constellation of available investment opportunities. The implementation of a hybrid approach that integrates multiple modeling techniques and analytic disciplines allows for a comprehensive environment that captures the underlying dynamics that drive observed market behavior. The implementation of an object oriented model structure constrains the models complexity by supporting dynamic re-use of both structure and logic.

This article discusses General Motors’ North American Enterprise Model, a system dynamics model of the entire North American automobile market. The Enterprise Model takes a broad look across the corporation and its marketplace, combining internal activities such as engineering, manufacturing and marketing with external factors such as competition for consumer purchases in the new and used vehicle marketplaces. Eight groups of manufacturers compete monthly for a decade across eighteen vehicle segments, making segment-by-segment decisions about price, volume and investment.

The creation of IT simulation models for uses such as capacity planning and optimization is becoming more and more widespread. Traditionally, the creation of such models required deep modeling and/or programming expertise, thus severely limiting their extensive use. Moreover, many modern intelligent tools now require simulation models in order to carry out their function. For these tools to be widely deployable, the derivation of simulation models must be made possible without requiring excessive technical knowledge.

The presentation shows you how to develop simulation models, choose abstraction level and methodology.

In the highly dynamic, competitive and complex market environments (such as telecom, insurance, leasing, health, etc) the consumer’s choice essentially depends on a number of individual characteristics, inherent dynamics of the consumer, network of contacts and interactions, and external influences that may be best captured within the Agent Based modeling paradigm. The Agent Based modeling is especially advantageous in the consumer market domain as it allows to leverage the full amount of individual-centric data from the CRM (Customer Relationships Management) systems highly available these days. Although there are no universal straightforward instructions for building Agent Based models, there are certain common steps and patterns. The goal of this paper is to introduce the patterns in consumer market modeling most frequently met in our consulting practice. The modeling language of AnyLogic is used throughout the paper